How should Page Admins deal with Flame Wars?

The chart above illustrates the emergence and resolution of a flame war[1] on Waitrose’s Facebook Page last November.

The horizontal axis represents sequential Posts on Waitrose’s Wall while the vertical axis represents the individual contributors to the "conversation" (really it was more of a barney than a conversation.) Each blue dot plotted on the chart represents at least one comment posted by a specific contributor on a specific post.)

So the more blue dots in a column mean the more unique users have commented on that post; the more blue dots in a row, the longer that unique user has continued engaging with the overall conversation (or to put it another way, the greater their appetite for the fight.)

The flame war in question more or less dominated Waitrose’s Facebook Page for more than a day and a half; accounting for 70% of all Posts and 72% of all Comments until it finally ran out of steam.

Much as I’d enjoy going into them, the ins and outs of the matter have little bearing. For the sake of this post, I’m only interested in what the numbers tell us about how Page Admins should deal with these emerging crises when they appear on their Facebook Walls.

Because, as it turns out, the accepted wisdom may be misleading.

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9 days of activity on ASOS’s Facebook Page

9 days of activity on the ASOS Facebook Page

This chart (click for bigger) represents 9 days of activity on ASOS’s Facebook Page. Compare it to the Budweiser flow and you’ll see how focused ASOS is on Customer Service by comparison.

And yet their post frequency is high: an average of more than 3 posts per day. They promoted 11 individual links during the period which between them delivered over 120K clicks through to the ASOS site.

So Customer Service is only half the story; there’s a robust DR element here.

The problem with sentiment analysis as a KPI

Here’s a brief summary:

Automated sentiment analysis uses a combination of two approaches to determine sentiment: lexical analysis (which looks for emotionally-weighted words) and machine-learning (which relies on a “training corpus” of manually scored documents to predict the emotional content of new documents that it processes.) Continued human intervention (“training”) in the machine learning process may improve results, but makes it more or less meaningless to compare the results over time.

No two sentiment analysis tools on the market agree closely; with most disagreements occurring and around “sentiment-neutral” comments. Since these form the bulk of the content, there is much room for disagreement.

Sentiment analysis on short content (e.g. Tweets) lacks sufficient context for accurate judgments, whereas analysis of longer content often lacks sufficient relevance (e.g. the search term may only be mentioned in passing, and the sentiment score refer to a different object)

Human-based/manual sentiment analysis also faces reliability challenges. There is often as much disagreement between two human analysts as there is between two automated systems. Worse still, research demonstrates that the same person – when presented with the same text on different occasions – may score it differently each time.

Conclusion: Sentiment Analysis may be used to guide customer service engagement, but should not be used as a KPI

iPhone 5: a vicious feedback loop

Why was everyone expecting the iPhone 5? Was it because journalists and bloggers were picking up on Google search trends and writing the stories that people wanted to hear?

Have a glance at this chart showing three years of search traffic (click for a live version

In previous years, search traffic has more or less followed the announcement – but for the (still mythical) iPhone 5, search traffic began to grow well ahead of time (a situation — as Scott Thompson has pointed out to me — probably only exacerbated by the delayed announcement.)

Bloggers and journalists are increasingly using social signals (search & twitter volume) to determine their editorial policy. After all, search and social are a good indicator of what interests your audience – and major traffic drivers.

In this case, however, the process created a vicious feedback loop. Even the more sensible commentators and analysts found that — when the conversation was about the iPhone 5, there was no virtue or value in writing about it in any other way.

I used Google to count the posts that mentioned “iPhone 5” in the title on some of the top tech blogs, MSM and online news sources — the numbers tell a story.

Facebook Pages aren’t a community



Facebook Pages aren’t a community as most people would understand a community. They’re more like an email list in many ways (albeit an email list with some pretty compelling social features.)

The thing we see on all the brand Facebook Pages that we’ve analysed so far is how much the conversation is controlled by the Page Admins.

(What is) The Value of a Fan

One of the most worrying questions in Social Media today seems to be, “what’s the value of all these fans? How can I mark them down as an asset, and not a cost?”

Recently I was invited to talk about these at Warc’s “Social Media: Beyond the Hype” conference and at Webit Congress 2011 (Webit is the digital industry’s get-together for CEE. It’s huge: very energetic, very exciting and great fun.)

Below are the slides, and below that, my script. I know that it’s hard to read the two together. Actually, someone told me that I mumbled a bit during the presentation (I wasn’t used to my Madonna-style headset mike to be fair) so the script is for them (and for anyone else who was too polite to complain.) You can download the script here.

NB: I write my scripts (like all my stuff) in a kind of lazy version of Markdown. This works great, but can make for a fairly ugly layout.

The Value of a Fan: Webit 2011
View more presentations from Mat Morrison

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